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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.
Journal article

Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.

  • Leclère D Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. leclere@iiasa.ac.at.
  • Obersteiner M Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. oberstei@iiasa.ac.at.
  • Barrett M WWF UK, The Living Planet Centre, Woking, UK.
  • Butchart SHM BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK.
  • Chaudhary A Institute of Food, Nutrition and Health, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • De Palma A Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK.
  • DeClerck FAJ EAT, Oslo, Norway.
  • Di Marco M CSIRO Land and Water, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  • Doelman JC PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Dürauer M Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Freeman R Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK.
  • Harfoot M UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK.
  • Hasegawa T Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Hellweg S Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Hilbers JP PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Hill SLL Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK.
  • Humpenöder F Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Jennings N Dotmoth, Dundry, UK.
  • Krisztin T Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Mace GM Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research (CEBR), Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
  • Ohashi H Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Tsukuba, Japan.
  • Popp A Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Purvis A Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK.
  • Schipper AM PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Tabeau A Wageningen Economic Research (WECR), Wageningen University and Research, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Valin H Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • van Meijl H Wageningen Economic Research (WECR), Wageningen University and Research, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • van Zeist WJ PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Visconti P Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Alkemade R PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Almond R WWF Netherlands, Zeist, The Netherlands.
  • Bunting G BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK.
  • Burgess ND UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK.
  • Cornell SE Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Di Fulvio F Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Ferrier S CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
  • Fritz S Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Fujimori S Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan.
  • Grooten M WWF Netherlands, Zeist, The Netherlands.
  • Harwood T CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
  • Havlík P Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Herrero M CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia.
  • Hoskins AJ CSIRO Health and Biosecurity, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
  • Jung M Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Kram T PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Lotze-Campen H Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Matsui T Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Tsukuba, Japan.
  • Meyer C German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
  • Nel D WWF International, Gland, Switzerland.
  • Newbold T Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research (CEBR), Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
  • Schmidt-Traub G Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Paris, France.
  • Stehfest E PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Strassburg BBN Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
  • van Vuuren DP PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Ware C CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
  • Watson JEM School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  • Wu W Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan.
  • Young L WWF UK, The Living Planet Centre, Woking, UK.
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  • 2020-09-10
Published in:
  • Nature. - 2020
Biodiversity
Conservation of Natural Resources
Diet
Diet, Vegetarian
Environmental Policy
Food Supply
Human Activities
Humans
Sustainable Development
English Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.
Language
  • English
Open access status
closed
Identifiers
Persistent URL
https://sonar.ch/global/documents/121967
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