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Soil Control on Runoff Response to Climate Change in Regional Climate Model Simulations

  • van den Hurk, Bart Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
  • Hirschi, Martin Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zürich, Switzerland
  • Schär, Christoph Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zürich, Switzerland
  • Lenderink, Geert Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
  • van Meijgaard, Erik Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
  • van Ulden, Aad Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
  • Rockel, Burkhardt GKSS Forschungszentrum, Geesthacht, Germany
  • Hagemann, Stefan Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
  • Graham, Phil Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
  • Kjellström, Erik Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
  • Jones, Richard Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom
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  • 2005-9-1
Published in:
  • Journal of Climate. - American Meteorological Society. - 2005, vol. 18, no. 17, p. 3536-3551
Atmospheric Science
English Abstract
Simulations with seven regional climate models driven by a common control climate simulation of a GCM carried out for Europe in the context of the (European Union) EU-funded Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project were analyzed with respect to land surface hydrology in the Rhine basin. In particular, the annual cycle of the terrestrial water storage was compared to analyses based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) atmospheric convergence and observed Rhine discharge data. In addition, an analysis was made of the partitioning of convergence anomalies over anomalies in runoff and storage. This analysis revealed that most models underestimate the size of the water storage and consequently overestimated the response of runoff to anomalies in net convergence. The partitioning of these anomalies over runoff and storage was indicative for the response of the simulated runoff to a projected climate change consistent with the greenhouse gas A2 Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In particular, the annual cycle of runoff is affected largely by the terrestrial storage reservoir. Larger storage capacity leads to smaller changes in both wintertime and summertime monthly mean runoff. The sustained summertime evaporation resulting from larger storage reservoirs may have a noticeable impact on the summertime surface temperature projections.
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  • English
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green
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https://sonar.ch/global/documents/168588
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