Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Kraemer MUG; Reiner RC; Brady OJ; Messina JP; Gilbert M; Pigott DM; Yi D; Johnson K; Earl L; Marczak LB; Shirude S; Davis Weaver N; Bisanzio D; Perkins TA; Lai S; Lu X; Jones P; Coelho GE; Carvalho RG; Van Bortel W; Marsboom C; Hendrickx G; Schaffner F; Moore CG; Nax HH; Bengtsson L; Wetter E; Tatem AJ; Brownstein JS; Smith DL; Lambrechts L; Cauchemez S; Linard C; Faria NR; Pybus OG; Scott TW; Liu Q; Yu H; Wint GRW; Hay SI; Golding N

doi:10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y

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Journal article

Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Kraemer MUG Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
Reiner RC Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Brady OJ Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Messina JP School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Gilbert M Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
Pigott DM Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Yi D Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Johnson K Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Earl L Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Marczak LB Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Shirude S Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Davis Weaver N Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Bisanzio D RTI International, Washington, DC, USA.
Perkins TA Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Lai S School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
Lu X School of Business, Central South University, Changsha, China.
Jones P Waen Associates Ltd, Y Waen, Islaw'r Dref, Dolgellau, Gwynedd, UK.
Coelho GE Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Washington, DC, USA.
Carvalho RG National Dengue Control Program, Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
Van Bortel W European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden.
Marsboom C Avia-GIS, Zoersel, Belgium.
Hendrickx G Avia-GIS, Zoersel, Belgium.
Schaffner F Francis Schaffner Consultancy, Riehen, Switzerland.
Moore CG Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Nax HH Computational Social Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Bengtsson L Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden.
Wetter E Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden.
Tatem AJ Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Brownstein JS Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Smith DL Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lambrechts L Insect-Virus Interactions Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, UMR2000, Paris, France.
Cauchemez S Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, UMR2000, Paris, France.
Linard C Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
Faria NR Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Pybus OG Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Scott TW Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Liu Q State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping, Beijing, China.
Yu H School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
Wint GRW Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Hay SI Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. sihay@uw.edu.
Golding N School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia. nick.golding.research@gmail.com.

2019-03-06

Published in:

Nature microbiology. - 2019

English The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.

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