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Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.

  • Bellouin N Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK.
  • Quaas J Institute for Meteorology Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany.
  • Gryspeerdt E Space and Atmospheric Physics Group Imperial College London London UK.
  • Kinne S Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany.
  • Stier P Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK.
  • Watson-Parris D Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK.
  • Boucher O Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS Paris France.
  • Carslaw KS School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK.
  • Christensen M Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK.
  • Daniau AL EPOC, UMR 5805, CNRS-Université de Bordeaux Pessac France.
  • Dufresne JL Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Ecole Polytechnique Paris France.
  • Feingold G NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division Boulder CO USA.
  • Fiedler S Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany.
  • Forster P Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds Leeds UK.
  • Gettelman A National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA.
  • Haywood JM CEMPS University of Exeter Exeter UK.
  • Lohmann U Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland.
  • Malavelle F CEMPS University of Exeter Exeter UK.
  • Mauritsen T Department of Meteorology Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden.
  • McCoy DT School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK.
  • Myhre G Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO) Oslo Norway.
  • Mülmenstädt J Institute for Meteorology Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany.
  • Neubauer D Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland.
  • Possner A Department of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA USA.
  • Rugenstein M Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany.
  • Sato Y Department of Applied Energy, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University Nagoya Japan.
  • Schulz M Climate Modelling and Air Pollution Section, Research and Development Department Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo Norway.
  • Schwartz SE Brookhaven National Laboratory Environmental and Climate Sciences Department Upton NY USA.
  • Sourdeval O Institute for Meteorology Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany.
  • Storelvmo T Department of Geosciences University of Oslo Oslo Norway.
  • Toll V Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK.
  • Winker D NASA Langley Research Center Hampton VA USA.
  • Stevens B Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany.
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  • 2020-08-01
Published in:
  • Reviews of geophysics (Washington, D.C. : 1985). - 2020
English Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.
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  • English
Open access status
hybrid
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https://sonar.ch/global/documents/188691
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