Dynamics and Predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation: An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges
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Santoso, Agus
Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, and Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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Hendon, Harry
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Watkins, Andrew
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Power, Scott
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Dommenget, Dietmar
School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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England, Matthew H.
Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Frankcombe, Leela
Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Holbrook, Neil J.
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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Holmes, Ryan
Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, and School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Hope, Pandora
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Lim, Eun-Pa
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Luo, Jing-Jia
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/KLME/ILCEC, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
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McGregor, Shayne
School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Neske, Sonja
School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Nguyen, Hanh
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Pepler, Acacia
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Rashid, Harun
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Gupta, Alex Sen
Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Taschetto, Andréa S.
Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Wang, Guomin
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Abellán, Esteban
Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Sullivan, Arnold
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Huguenin, Maurice F.
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
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Gamble, Felicity
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Delage, Francois
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Published in:
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - American Meteorological Society. - 2019, vol. 100, no. 3, p. 403-420
English
Abstract
El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cause significant year-to-year disruptions in global climate, including in the atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere. Australia is one of the countries where its climate, including droughts and flooding rains, is highly sensitive to the temporal and spatial variations of ENSO. The dramatic impacts of ENSO on the environment, society, health, and economies worldwide make the application of reliable ENSO predictions a powerful way to manage risks and resources. An improved understanding of ENSO dynamics in a changing climate has the potential to lead to more accurate and reliable ENSO predictions by facilitating improved forecast systems. This motivated an Australian national workshop on ENSO dynamics and prediction that was held in Sydney, Australia, in November 2017. This workshop followed the aftermath of the 2015/16 extreme El Niño, which exhibited different characteristics to previous extreme El Niños and whose early evolution since 2014 was challenging to predict. This essay summarizes the collective workshop perspective on recent progress and challenges in understanding ENSO dynamics and predictability and improving forecast systems. While this essay discusses key issues from an Australian perspective, many of the same issues are important for other ENSO-affected countries and for the international ENSO research community.
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Language
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Open access status
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green
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Identifiers
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Persistent URL
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https://sonar.ch/global/documents/209500
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