Soil erosion is unlikely to drive a future carbon sink in Europe.
- Lugato E European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sustainable Resources Directorate, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
- Smith P Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St. Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK.
- Borrelli P Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
- Panagos P European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sustainable Resources Directorate, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
- Ballabio C European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sustainable Resources Directorate, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
- Orgiazzi A European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sustainable Resources Directorate, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
- Fernandez-Ugalde O European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sustainable Resources Directorate, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
- Montanarella L European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sustainable Resources Directorate, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
- Jones A European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sustainable Resources Directorate, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
- 2018-11-17
Published in:
- Science advances. - 2018
English
Understanding of the processes governing soil organic carbon turnover is confounded by the fact that C feedbacks driven by soil erosion have not yet been fully explored at large scale. However, in a changing climate, variation in rainfall erosivity (and hence soil erosion) may change the amount of C displacement, hence inducing feedbacks onto the land C cycle. Using a consistent biogeochemistry-erosion model framework to quantify the impact of future climate on the C cycle, we show that C input increases were offset by higher heterotrophic respiration under climate change. Taking into account all the additional feedbacks and C fluxes due to displacement by erosion, we estimated a net source of 0.92 to 10.1 Tg C year-1 from agricultural soils in the European Union to the atmosphere over the period 2016-2100. These ranges represented a weaker and stronger C source compared to a simulation without erosion (1.8 Tg C year-1), respectively, and were dependent on the erosion-driven C loss parameterization, which is still very uncertain. However, when setting a baseline with current erosion rates, the accelerated erosion scenario resulted in 35% more eroded C, but its feedback on the C cycle was marginal. Our results challenge the idea that higher erosion driven by climate will lead to a C sink in the near future.
- Language
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- English
- Open access status
- gold
- Identifiers
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- DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aau3523
- PMID 30443596
- Persistent URL
- https://sonar.ch/global/documents/232429
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