Journal article
The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles.
- La Marca A Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences of the Mother, Children and Adults, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Policlinico, Via del Pozzo 71, 41124 Modena, Italy; Clinica EUGIN, Via Nobili 188/F, 41126, Modena, Italy. Electronic address: antonio.lamarca@unimore.it.
- Capuzzo M Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences of the Mother, Children and Adults, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Policlinico, Via del Pozzo 71, 41124 Modena, Italy.
- Donno V Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences of the Mother, Children and Adults, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Policlinico, Via del Pozzo 71, 41124 Modena, Italy.
- Mignini Renzini M Clinica EUGIN, Via Nobili 188/F, 41126, Modena, Italy; Biogenesi, Reproductive Medicine Centre, Monza, Italy.
- Giovane CD Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
- D'Amico R Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences of the Mother, Children and Adults, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Policlinico, Via del Pozzo 71, 41124 Modena, Italy.
- Sunkara SK Department of Women's Health, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London, Strand Campus, Strand, London, UK.
- 2020-08-05
Published in:
- Journal of gynecology obstetrics and human reproduction. - 2020
English
RESEARCH QUESTION
How much the variability in patients' response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients' basal characteristics?
DESIGN
Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models.
RESULTS
Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients' characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66).
CONCLUSIONS
The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients' characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.
How much the variability in patients' response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients' basal characteristics?
DESIGN
Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models.
RESULTS
Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients' characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66).
CONCLUSIONS
The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients' characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.
- Language
-
- English
- Open access status
- closed
- Identifiers
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- DOI 10.1016/j.jogoh.2020.101878
- PMID 32747217
- Persistent URL
- https://sonar.ch/global/documents/279176
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