Back
Full-text
Journal article

Back-extrapolated and year-specific NO2 land use regression models for Great Britain - Do they yield different exposure assessment?

  • Gulliver J UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit (SAHSU), MRC-PHE Centre for Environment & Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, W2 1PG London, UK. Electronic address: j.gulliver@imperial.ac.uk.
  • de Hoogh K Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4002 Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, 4003 Basel, Switzerland.
  • Hoek G Institute of Risk Assessment Sciences, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 2, 3584 CM Utrecht, The Netherlands.
  • Vienneau D Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4002 Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, 4003 Basel, Switzerland.
  • Fecht D UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit (SAHSU), MRC-PHE Centre for Environment & Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, W2 1PG London, UK.
  • Hansell A UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit (SAHSU), MRC-PHE Centre for Environment & Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, W2 1PG London, UK.
Show more…
  • 2016-04-24
Published in:
  • Environment international. - 2016
Air pollution modelling
Back-extrapolation
Exposure assessment
GIS
Land use regression
Nitrogen dioxide
Air Pollutants
Air Pollution
Environmental Monitoring
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Nitrogen Dioxide
Regression Analysis
United Kingdom
English Robust methods to estimate historic population air pollution exposures are important tools for epidemiological studies evaluating long-term health effects. We developed land use regression (LUR) models for NO2 exposure in Great Britain for 1991 and explored whether the choice of year-specific or back-extrapolated LUR yields 1) similar LUR variables and model performance, and 2) similar national and regional address-level and small-area concentrations. We constructed two LUR models for 1991using NO2 concentrations from the diffusion tube monitoring network, one using 75% of all available measurement sites (that over-represent industrial areas), and the other using 75% of a subset of sites proportionate to population by region to study the effects of monitoring site selection bias. We compared, using the remaining (hold-out) 25% of monitoring sites, the performance of the two 1991 models with back-extrapolation of a previously published 2009 model, developed using NO2 concentrations from automatic chemiluminescence monitoring sites and predictor variables from 2006/2007. The 2009 model was back-extrapolated to 1991 using the same predictors (1990 & 1995) used to develop 1991 models. The 1991 models included industrial land use variables, not present for 2009. The hold-out performance of 1991 models (mean-squared-error-based-R(2): 0.62-0.64) was up to 8% higher and ~1μg/m(3) lower in root mean squared error than the back-extrapolated 2009 model, with best performance from the subset of sites representing population exposures. Year-specific and back-extrapolated exposures for residential addresses (n=1.338,399) and small areas (n=10.518) were very highly linearly correlated for Great Britain (r>0.83). This study suggests that year-specific model for 1991 and back-extrapolation of the 2009 LUR yield similar exposure assessment.
Language
  • English
Open access status
green
Identifiers
Persistent URL
https://sonar.ch/global/documents/299094
Statistics
Document views: 31 File downloads:
  • Full-text: 0