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State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.

  • Schewe J Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany. schewe@pik-potsdam.de.
  • Gosling SN School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, UK.
  • Reyer C Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Zhao F School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China.
  • Ciais P Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
  • Elliott J University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, 5735S. Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.
  • Francois L Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique/U.R. SPHERES, Université de Liège, B-4000, LIEGE, Belgium.
  • Huber V Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Ctra. de Utrera 1, 41013, Sevilla, Spain.
  • Lotze HK Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.
  • Seneviratne SI ETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • van Vliet MTH Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  • Vautard R Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
  • Wada Y International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Breuer L Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, 35390, Giessen, Germany.
  • Büchner M Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Carozza DA Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 0E8, Canada.
  • Chang J Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
  • Coll M Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM - CSIC), Barcelona, E-08003, Spain.
  • Deryng D Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, 15374, Germany.
  • de Wit A Wageningen Environmental Research, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  • Eddy TD Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.
  • Folberth C International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Frieler K Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Friend AD Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK.
  • Gerten D Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Gudmundsson L ETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Hanasaki N National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
  • Ito A National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
  • Khabarov N International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Kim H Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 153-8505, Japan.
  • Lawrence P Terrestrial Science Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA.
  • Morfopoulos C Imperial College of London, Department of Life Science, Silwood Park Campus Buckhurst Rd, Berks, SL5 7PY, UK.
  • Müller C Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Müller Schmied H Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
  • Orth R Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Ostberg S Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Pokhrel Y Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, MI, 48824, USA.
  • Pugh TAM School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.
  • Sakurai G Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8604, Japan.
  • Satoh Y Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  • Schmid E University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria.
  • Stacke T Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146, Hamburg, Germany.
  • Steenbeek J Ecopath International Initiative, Bellaterra, 08193, Spain.
  • Steinkamp J Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt, Germany.
  • Tang Q Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China.
  • Tian H School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA.
  • Tittensor DP Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.
  • Volkholz J Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Wang X Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
  • Warszawski L Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
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  • 2019-03-03
Published in:
  • Nature communications. - 2019
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Physics and Astronomy
General Chemistry
English Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Language
  • English
Open access status
gold
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Persistent URL
https://sonar.ch/global/documents/35965
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