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The diversity of population responses to environmental change.

  • Colchero F Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230, Odense M, Denmark.
  • Jones OR Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230, Odense M, Denmark.
  • Conde DA Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230, Odense M, Denmark.
  • Hodgson D Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9EZ, UK.
  • Zajitschek F Evolution and Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.
  • Schmidt BR Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Malo AF Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.
  • Alberts SC Departments of Biology and Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA.
  • Becker PH Institut of Avian Research An der Vogelwarte, 21 D-26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
  • Bouwhuis S Institut of Avian Research An der Vogelwarte, 21 D-26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
  • Bronikowski AM Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, 251 Bessey Hall, Ames, IA, USA.
  • De Vleeschouwer KM Centre for Research and Conservation, Royal Zoological Society of Antwerp, Koningin Astridplein, Antwerpen, Belgium.
  • Delahay RJ National Wildlife Management Centre, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodchester Park Nympsfield, Gloucestershire, GL10 3UJ, UK.
  • Dummermuth S Info Fauna Karch, UniMail, Bâtiment G, Bellevaux 51, 2000, Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
  • Fernández-Duque E Department of Anthropology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA.
  • Frisenvaenge J Amphi Consult, Sciencepark NOVI, Niels Jernes Vej 10, DK, 9220, Aalborg Ø, Denmark.
  • Hesselsøe M Amphi Consult, Sciencepark NOVI, Niels Jernes Vej 10, DK, 9220, Aalborg Ø, Denmark.
  • Larson S Department of Anthropology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  • Lemaître JF Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
  • McDonald J Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9EZ, UK.
  • Miller DAW Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, 411 Forest Resources Building, University Park, PA, 16802, USA.
  • O'Donnell C Department of Conservation, Te Papa Atawhai, PO Box 4715, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
  • Packer C College of Biological Sciences, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, 123 Snyder Hall, 1475 Gortner Ave, Saint Paul, MN, 55108, USA.
  • Raboy BE Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, 25 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON, Canada, M5S 3B2.
  • Reading CJ Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, CEH Wallingford, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh, Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK.
  • Wapstra E School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 5, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
  • Weimerskirch H Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS, 79360, Villiers en Bois, France.
  • While GM Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS, 79360, Villiers en Bois, France.
  • Baudisch A Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230, Odense M, Denmark.
  • Flatt T Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Ch. du Musée 10, 1700, Fribourg, Switzerland.
  • Coulson T Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.
  • Gaillard JM Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
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  • 2018-12-12
Published in:
  • Ecology letters. - 2019
Age-structured population models
Bayesian inference
fecundity
mortality
survival
Animals
Biodiversity
Birds
Climate Change
Demography
Extinction, Biological
Female
Male
Models, Biological
Population Dynamics
Stochastic Processes
English The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.
Language
  • English
Open access status
hybrid
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Persistent URL
https://sonar.ch/global/documents/82321
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