Pain rates in general population for the period 1991-2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis.
- Guido D Neurology, Public Health and Disability Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta, Via Celoria 11, 20133, Milan, Italy.
- Leonardi M Neurology, Public Health and Disability Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta, Via Celoria 11, 20133, Milan, Italy. matilde.leonardi@istituto-besta.it.
- Mellor-Marsá B Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain.
- Moneta MV Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain.
- Sanchez-Niubo A Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain.
- Tyrovolas S Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain.
- Giné-Vázquez I Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain.
- Haro JM Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain.
- Chatterji S Information, Evidence and Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
- Bobak M Research Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
- Ayuso-Mateos JL Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental, CIBERSAM, Madrid, Spain.
- Arndt H SPRING TECHNO GMBH & Co. KG, Bremen, Germany.
- Koupil I Department of Public Health Sciences, Centre for Health Equity Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Bickenbach J Department of Health Sciences and Health Policy, University of Lucerne, Lucerne, Switzerland.
- Koskinen S Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland.
- Tobiasz-Adamczyk B Department of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland.
- Panagiotakos D Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Health Science and Education, Harokopio University, Athens, Greece.
- Raggi A Neurology, Public Health and Disability Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta, Via Celoria 11, 20133, Milan, Italy.
- 2020-05-15
Published in:
- The journal of headache and pain. - 2020
Bayesian age period cohort model
Employment
Headache disorders
Musculoskeletal disorders
Pain
Projection
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Bayes Theorem
Female
Humans
Incidence
Male
Middle Aged
Pain
Self Report
English
BACKGROUND
Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991-2015 and to project 10-year pain rates.
METHODS
We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990-2015 and we applied Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content "self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview", with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality.
RESULTS
Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10-20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10-15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36-50.
CONCLUSIONS
Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates.
Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991-2015 and to project 10-year pain rates.
METHODS
We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990-2015 and we applied Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content "self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview", with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality.
RESULTS
Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10-20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10-15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36-50.
CONCLUSIONS
Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates.
- Language
-
- English
- Open access status
- gold
- Identifiers
-
- DOI 10.1186/s10194-020-01108-3
- PMID 32404046
- Persistent URL
- https://sonar.ch/global/documents/61664
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